报告题目：Improving toxicity assessment via better use of historical experimental data

报告时间：2024年6月11日 下午16：00

报告地点：南湖校区老图书馆四楼会议室

主办单位：数学与统计学院

报告人：Jing Zhang

报告人简介：2003年获得中国科学技术大学信息管理与信息系统学士学位，2008年获得密苏里大学统计学博士学位。目前，她是美国俄亥俄州迈阿密大学统计学教授。美国统计协会（ASA）成员、国际统计学会（ISI）当选成员和ASA风险分析科当选项目主席。2021-2022年，张教授作为国际环境计量学会（TIES）联络人在ISI外展委员会任职，2023-2024年，在ISI提名委员会任职。她的研究主要集中在应用贝叶斯分析，特别是在环境毒性评估和贝叶斯历史借鉴方面。

摘要：Experiments are routinely conducted to evaluate the toxicity of water effluents or chemicals. In a Ceriodaphnia dubia reproduction test, organisms are exposed to varying concentration levels of the toxicant or other adverse treatment and the number of young produced after a given experiment period are recorded. To analyze the test outcomes, mean reproduction is modeled as a function of the concentration, and the estimated concentrations associated with specified levels of adverse effect often are used in risk management. While aquatic toxicity analyses often focus on outcomes from the current test, laboratories commonly have a history of conducting such tests using the same species, following a similar experimental protocol. So it seems reasonable to assume that the same underlying biological process generates the historical and current tests. In the present study, we propose using a calibrated power prior approach to incorporate historical control outcomes as prior input, and compare the behavior of the method when different congruence measures are used to determine the amount of historical input that will be incorporated. Simulation results show that three of the congruence measures can improve precision and reduce bias of the potency estimates.